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Time sequence analysis of longterm epidemic curve of adenovirus keratoconjunctivitis in Okinawa islands Eiichi Uchio 1 , Shigeaki Ohno 1 , Hideo Ishikawa 2 , Masao Teruya 3 , Isao Matsunaga 4 , Koki Aoki 5 1Dept of Ophthalmol, Yokohama City Univ Sch of Med 2Ishikawa Eye Clinic 3Teruya Eye Clinic 4Matsunaga Eye Clinic 5Aoki Eye Clinic pp.435-438
Published Date 1995/3/15
DOI https://doi.org/10.11477/mf.1410904209
  • Abstract
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A regional epidemic of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC) in Okinawa was evaluated by time-series analysis. The National Epidemic Surveillance Report between 1986 and 1992 served as material. The epidemic curve was analyzed by 12-month moving average method excluding seasonal deviations. Fitness of longterm trend of epidemic curve to functional curves was analyzed by F-test. The epidemic curve showed its peak in the middle of 1990 reflecting the typical seasonal deviation in summer. Longterm trend estimated by 12-month moving average method approximated the two-dimensional exponential curve. The findings suggest that the incidence of EKC in Okinawa will gradually decrease in near future.


Copyright © 1995, Igaku-Shoin Ltd. All rights reserved.

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電子版ISSN 1882-1308 印刷版ISSN 0370-5579 医学書院

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