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Japanese

Virological and theoretical epidemiological features of hospital infections of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis Eiichi Uchio 1 , Nobuyoshi Kobayashi 2 , Kozo Saeki 3 , Kazushiro Okada 1 , Shigeaki Ohno 1 1Dept of Ophthalmol Yokohama City Univ Sch of Med 2Yokohama City Institute of Health 3Div of Ophthalmol Odawara Munincipal Hosp pp.459-463
Published Date 1992/4/15
DOI https://doi.org/10.11477/mf.1410908420
  • Abstract
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Theoretical epidemiology analysis is a method used to extract mathematical models of the epi-demic curve. It is suited for investigation of epi-demic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC). We analyzed recent hospital infections of EKC in two institu-tions by applying the virological method and the Reed-Frost model. These two infections involved 15 and 28 patients each, representing 19.0% and 20. 3% of total inpatients at the time. We could isolate adenovirus type 37 (Ad 37) in all 14 specimens. All the 14 isolates showed identical cleavage patterns with those of Ad 37 prototype strain. Infection 1 was controlled by ward closing. Infection 2 was eradicated in 11 weeks, although the number of susceptibles remained unchanged. The probability of contact between two people in the group was estimated to be 0.18-0.28/week during the peak period and 0.03-0.05/week during the ordinary period according to the Reed-Frost model.

The above theoretical epidemiological analysis suggests that EKC spreads like a water-borne infec-tion and that it can be controlled by reducing the number of susceptibles or lowering the probability of contact.


Copyright © 1992, Igaku-Shoin Ltd. All rights reserved.

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電子版ISSN 1882-1308 印刷版ISSN 0370-5579 医学書院

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