回復期リハビリテーション病棟の脳卒中患者における「家事再開予測モデル」の外的妥当性

External validation of the Prediction for Resuming Domestic Chores After Stroke (PRDCAS) models in a recovery rehabilitation ward

要旨：回復期リハビリテーション病棟の脳卒中患者46名を対象に「家事再開予測モデル」の外的妥当性を検証した．回復期病棟退院時に，家事再開予測モデルを用いて退院後の家事6項目（食事の用意，食事の後片付け，洗濯，掃除や整頓，力仕事，買い物）の再開状況を予測した．退院3ヵ月後にフォローアップを行い，実際の家事再開状況を調査した．家事再開予測モデルは項目ごとに判別的中率を算出し，ROC曲線のAUCにてモデルの予測能を評価した．結果，各家事項目における判別的中率は75.0〜82.2%，AUCは0.71〜0.86であった．本研究により，家事再開予測モデルは中等度の予測能を有していることが示された．

　We examined the external validation of the Prediction for Resuming Domestic Chores After Stroke (PRDCAS) models in forty-six stroke patients admitted to a recovery rehabilitation ward. First, we used the PRDCAS models to predict whether each stroke patient resumed the six items of domestic chores (preparing meals, washing dishes, washing clothes, light housework, heavy housework, and local shopping) after discharge. Next, we investigated resumption status of domestic chores three months after discharge. After that, the prediction accuracy of each model was calculated, and the discrimination was assessed using the Area Under the Curve of Receiver Operator Characteristic curve. As a result, the prediction accuracy for each item ranged from 75.0 to 82.2%, and the AUC ranged from 0.71 to 0.86. The results of this study indicate moderate accuracy of the PRDCAS models.